Eagle eye over the BRICS11 landscape

Now they are eleven.

Pepe Escobar mentions that the original five reached a compromise about the number of new countries accepted as full members starting January 1st.

Understandable, the expansion pace needs to be controlled. More interesting is India’s ‘non-combat’ on the matter. Some believed India will limit drastically the number of new member states in this first wave of expansion. Clearly, it didn’t.

Pepe informs us that the original members promoted their favorites: Brazil-Argentina, Russia-Egypt, South Africa-Ethiopia and China all the oil producers. I doubt the explanation is so straightforward.

The 3 big oil producers were known to be certain new additions. The Saudi Arabia-Iran détente wasn’t chaperoned by China only from the goodness of her heart. China needs the oil and needs to position itself as a potential defender and honest broker for countries that don’t ‘enjoy’ the luxury of nuclear weapons’ immunity when facing certain threats. The Bidenists ‘hint’ to Saudi Arabia was a desperate move to placate China, by tickling Saudi’s leader’s human ego, even if it meant breaking a taboo.

So, China inserted its ‘favorites’ by default.

Next piece of the puzzle. Russia and Egypt are friends, no doubt. Russia certainly was pleased and interested to have Egypt in as soon as possible. But also was China. The ‘belt and road’, no matter how favorable the geopolitical cards shall fall, will always benefit if the Suez canal is permanently open for Chinese commerce.

Next. South Africa wanted Ethiopia in. Certainly, why not ? But those who really cared are Russia and… China. Egypt, Sudan in between, which is relationship wise close to Egypt and even more to Russia, and Ethiopia, increasingly friendly with Eritrea, which holds its access to the Red Sea, would establish the control of Red Sea and secure the access to Suez from the Indian Ocean. The other shore is held by the Saudis and I’m pretty sure all pieces of Yemen will eventually mend together, peacefully, under BRICS+ influence.

Russia backing Ethiopia through South Africa’s ‘picking’, but openly sponsoring Egypt first insured both Egypt and Ethiopia have to cooperate, no matter what. Ethiopia is a gamble, but it is essential for the grand scheme. China needs Russia to back Ethiopia, Ethiopia needs both and the Saudis to end the Tigray rebellion, Egypt needs a friendly Ethiopia so the Nile is regulated in such a way that won’t harm its vital interests.

Egypt-Ethiopia had to be accepted as a ‘package’.

Remains Argentina. Brazil’s ambition and the weakest link from the new additions. Still, the symbolism is important and another South American country, not to mention that a Spanish speaking country was a must, had to be part of the first wave. From the three known possible important candidates (Argentina, Venezuela and Mexico) it indeed looked as the most probable choice.

The expansion clearly displays a westward direction, ‘encircling’ the Middle East and establishing impressive pillars for the future ‘bridges’ linking the industrious East with the immensely rich and rising African continent.

India played it low, all new members were others’ priorities. Nevertheless, India proved its value, including in the eyes of the Collective West, by refraining to obstruct the BRICS expansion. Obvious advantages for its own commercial interests and energy needs surely counted a lot. But I’m pretty sure some other concessions, behind the scenes, coming from China and Russia, happened.

The strategic process to secure the Suez road was certainly China’s priority and it worked. China slowly emerges as the leader of the organization, softly spoken maybe, yet more influential than the rest.

Many vulnerabilities have to be dealt with, many new ones have been added.

The various symbolic signals the choice of the new members sent shouldn’t elude us either. Saudi Arabia as the depositary of Islam’s holiest sites and unofficial leader of the Sunni world, along with the most important Arab country, both along the Persian leader of the Shia world, an Orthodox and two Catholic countries. Three of the oldest civilizations in the world, different races, countries involved in bitter rivalries, or worse, until yesterday, now ready to cooperate. This is big.

The Turkish world immediately pops out as the major absent in the picture. We’ll see. Either it signals serious problems, very serious problems, since the soft belly of Russia and the key to the Asian unity is the largely Turkish central Asia, an essential land link in the ‘belt’ component, or we’ll witness, next year, the rallying of the Turkish world within the second wave of expansion (with or without Turkey itself).

The strategic shift of the Suez route into the BRICS’ sphere exposes the moribund EUrope to very hard to resist temptations. Before the fake-nationalist Giorgia Meloni came to power, Italy was configuring, for better or for worse, as the possible ‘belt and road’ beachhead into EU. Maybe it will come back to its senses, but the smell of ‘spices’ travelling up and down the Mediterranean may incite others too, like the chased out of Africa French.

The logical entry point into the continent, the Constanta port in Romania (once the closest friendly country China had in Europe), the second largest European port with direct connection to the Danube, the main waterway to the heart of Europe, seems frozen, but is it? Netherland’s desperation to get full control over the port suggests it’s not quite so. Shortest destination (capacity and further access inside EU considered) from Suez, the route has to go through the Bosporus, reality which hints to a Turkey possibly very interested into the matter. As it would be very interested into an unhindered flow of grains from Ukraine/Russia fertile lands towards the world.

Energy and food, a critical, strategic spot (the Suez canal) on the way to be firmly secured, two of the largest African countries on board, EUrope exposed to a real alternative out of the humiliating vassalage, these are the most important geopolitical goals the new BRICS11 promises to turn into a paradigm changing reality. Only a promise, for now, and parts of this promise could be just wishful and hurriedly optimistic projections coming from hopeful outside observers.

I wasn’t interested in enumerating the riches the new members of the club bring to the table, there’s no common basket and BRICS avoids to be perceived as a closed block, the move envisions longer term and more strategic goals than such an inventory.

I was interested in the financial moves, but, for now, I don’t grasp what changed, aside the increased risk Argentina’s financial mess poses.

No matter who will be displeased by this conclusion, the overall BRICS enlargement strategy appears to be subordinated to China’s strategy to position itself as world leader. A better leader, fair play, peaceful solutions, less greed ? We’ll see, but China emerges as the ‘coordinator’.