The Transnistrian pill
Russia has very limited interest for Transnistria as such. It doesn’t really care for the 140k or so Russian ethnics there, who were never subject to the multiple levels aggression Russians experienced in Ukraine after the Maidan coup.
The strategic and practical interest Russia may have about Transnistria relates to Odessa only and in strict correlation with what Russia intends to do about Odessa, first militarily then politically.
Z’s regime signals that it could get involved in Transnistria, most probably in conjunction with the crazy desires expressed by the ever present neocon troublemakers deeply embedded inside US administrations. The intention behind such move would hope to provoke Russia so it spreads thin its resources on a larger front, one which should necessarily shift attention back to Kherson and beyond and bring forth Odessa as a priority for the military. Not to mention Russia would be rushed into action on its enemies timing.
Not sure if Russia would fall for this ruse. At this point, it is rather clear Russia doesn’t have the capabilities to attempt a low-risk invasion towards Transnistria and/or Odessa (which would be cut off from the rest of Ukraine if not assaulted directly), as a response, without completely messing up its slow paced but inexorable advancements in Donbass and the methodical ruining of Ukraine military capacity.
Transnistria doesn’t appear defendable in the current configuration of the battlefield and reinforcements & supplies sent there by air look too risky.
Fortunately and unfortunately, escalation in Transnistria depends on a Rep. of Moldova decision, both in the form of central government direct intervention and in a (complementary) request to Ukraine to lend a ‘helping’ hand. Fortunately → because the authorities in Moldova lack the folly displayed elsewhere, the political class favors a transactional approach, keeping their asses out of danger being the main priority. Unfortunately → because there are sufficient levers the West might pull to force down the throats of some of their puppets a very bitter decision pill.
The president is a typical Soros breed, but she is more talk than action. The unknown quantity remains the new PM, who might be either a more determined enforcer of the Western wishes (which aren’t so clear cut either) or a trained in stalling… professional.
Ukraine venturing to attack Transnistrian positions without an explicit official request from Moldova shouldn’t be entirely dismissed, but it would open too many uncontrollable ramifications, not the least one being the image of an aggressive Ukraine eager to use force totally disrespectful with its smaller neighbors’ sovereignty.