It seems you've outlined a very plausible end scenario. I believe Putin will insist on regime change in Kiev and the installation of a neutral (therefore pro-Russian) government). I also believe he is ready to relinquish Odessa to a neutral Ukraine( or even Kharkov). It is also evident that the vast majority of the population of southeast Ukraine would support such a settlement as its obvious they are tired of being victims in the tug of war.
The Galician region around Liviv, however is likely to be an exception and I suspect a lot depends on Poland (regime change or not). I wouldn't discount a tacit settlement with Poland releasing this territory as a kind of Polish protectorate. It would be a headache for Russia to occupy and Russia would still have a buffer state. Also, most Ukrainians would probably be glad to be rid of a part of their country that has been nothing but trouble to the majority. Hungary may have an interest in Transcarpathia that could be worked out separately with a plebiscite.
Poland is likely to remain a NATO vassal state but it's conceivable that the internal problems resulting from the annexation of Galicia would divert any external aggression towards the problem of integrating the acquired territory.
It seems you've outlined a very plausible end scenario. I believe Putin will insist on regime change in Kiev and the installation of a neutral (therefore pro-Russian) government). I also believe he is ready to relinquish Odessa to a neutral Ukraine( or even Kharkov). It is also evident that the vast majority of the population of southeast Ukraine would support such a settlement as its obvious they are tired of being victims in the tug of war.
The Galician region around Liviv, however is likely to be an exception and I suspect a lot depends on Poland (regime change or not). I wouldn't discount a tacit settlement with Poland releasing this territory as a kind of Polish protectorate. It would be a headache for Russia to occupy and Russia would still have a buffer state. Also, most Ukrainians would probably be glad to be rid of a part of their country that has been nothing but trouble to the majority. Hungary may have an interest in Transcarpathia that could be worked out separately with a plebiscite.
Poland is likely to remain a NATO vassal state but it's conceivable that the internal problems resulting from the annexation of Galicia would divert any external aggression towards the problem of integrating the acquired territory.