A time to dispel strategic ambiguities
Macron is rambling before a low standards audience, France couldn’t fight Russia in Ukraine even if… nope, don’t have a strong enough comparison-derision, it’s simply a delusion from Macron’s part, if we look from a military perspective. A delusion he’s cynically aware of.
On the other hand, Russia may threaten all it wants any country or anyone it wants to keep out from Ukraine, but Russia has limited itself to claim only the 4 oblasts, while still pretending is not at war with Ukraine as such (it surely hasn’t formally declared war) and it is not clear how it could object to an official invitation Ukraine would address a foreign country to send troops inside the country, for whatever reason, as long as Russia enjoys a similar status in Syria in another proxy war.
The line between arrogant posture and annihilation is too thin even for cocky France to risk a Napoleonian adventure, miracle campaigns don’t happen anymore. Having mentioned that, Russia’s real strategic ambiguity, as opposed to Macron’s boasted strategic ambiguity, worked until now, but there are signs this tool has worn out. Russia can’t weigh indefinitely the adversaries intentions in order to maximize its own chances, sometime a decision has to be made: we want this and that and the resolution has to meet this or that criteria. And to reach this objective we are willing to commit enough forces, project enough power, set clear lines, including geographically, make it overall clear for anyone what we want to achieve.
Russia’s worry for a long war centered on Ukraine killing fields becomes rather irrelevant, the long strategic, all out war with the West is and will be ongoing anyway. Ukraine case has to be closed, if Russia believes it is in its power to do so.
At this point, the possibility of a diminished, puppet, rump, political entity called Ukraine to exist in the future is vanishing. Russia either swallows it entirely or states its territorial claims. As final goal, it is about the territory in the end, to hold or ‘poison’ for others until it is once again yours, humans and nations are territorial, no matter how long is sometimes necessary to delay actual possession in order to serve a winning strategy. Buffer zones are the same, equally strong claims suspended for a while (a very long while at times).
In his madness, Macron is foolproof. He is a staunch globalist, projection of an elite who lost all connection with the nation it disdainfully fakes to represent, the elections pretense of democratic rule is far away, and he plays on the tolerance the president-kings of France are accustomed to enjoy whenever they come with solemnly proclaimed outlandish schemes.
We shouldn’t bother with impossible practical contortions though, Macron’s message is mainly for Russia. Russia may choose to ignore it and go for the whole pie, poorly cooked parts included, or, while feigning outrage, start the transactions.
On both sides we notice a common element: they don’t bother with Ukraine’s so called political decision makers any longer, Ukraine is spent.